Climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems: Toward robust approaches for managing risks and uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.publishedVersio

Capabilities of Global Ocean Programmes to Inform Climate Services

AbstractClimate services are identified as a means of providing the information that is needed to support decision makers in assessing the impacts of climate change on the oceans. We discuss the current observation programs to support these services, and their capacity to provide the information needed to monitor and address key science questions. An analysis of the current oceanographic observation programs is shown to be undersubscribed from their original plans. There are vulnerabilities in the current observing programs, particularly in relation to satellite measurements. The interaction of climate services with the research community, with policy makers and stakeholders and operational centres is outlined and leads to four recommendations. The key recommendations are for the more pervasisve development of climate services and for a modest increment in the observing program informed by the recommendations of the OceanObs’09 conference

Variability of the Norwegian Atlantic Current and associated eddy field from surface drifters

The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC) and its eddy field are examined using data from surface drifters. The data set used spans nearly 20 years, from June 1991 to December 2009. The results are largely consistent with previous estimates, which were based on data from the first decade only. With our new data set, statistical analysis of the mean fields can be calculated with larger confidence. The two branches of the NwAC, one over the continental slope and a second further offshore, are clearly captured. The Norwegian Coastal Current is also resolved. In addition, we observe a semipermanent anticylonic eddy in the Lofoten Basin, a feature seen previously in hydrography and in models. The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is intensified along the path of the NwAC, with the largest values occurring in the Lofoten Basin. The strongest currents, exceeding 100 cm s−1, occur west of Lofoten. Lateral diffusivities were computed in five domains and ranged from 1–5 × 107 cm2 s−1. The Lagrangian integral time and space scales are 1–2 days and 7–23 km, respectively. The data set allows studies of seasonal and interannual variations as well. The strongest seasonal signal is in the NwAC itself, as the mean flow strengthens by approximately 20% in winter. The EKE and diffusivities on the other hand do not exhibit consistent seasonality in the sampled regions. There are no consistent indications of changes in either the mean or fluctuating surface velocities between the 1990s and 2000s

Decreasing intensity of open-ocean convection in the Greenland and Iceland seas

The air–sea transfer of heat and fresh water plays a critical role in the global climate system. This is particularly true for the Greenland and Iceland seas, where these fluxes drive ocean convection that contributes to Denmark Strait overflow water, the densest component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the wintertime retreat of sea ice in the region, combined with different rates of warming for the atmosphere and sea surface of the Greenland and Iceland seas, has resulted in statistically significant reductions of approximately 20% in the magnitude of the winter air–sea heat fluxes since 1979. We also show that modes of climate variability other than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are required to fully characterize the regional air–sea interaction. Mixed-layer model simulations imply that further decreases in atmospheric forcing will exceed a threshold for the Greenland Sea whereby convection will become depth limited, reducing the ventilation of mid-depth waters in the Nordic seas. In the Iceland Sea, further reductions have the potential to decrease the supply of the densest overflow waters to the AMOC

Temporal Variability of Diapycnal Mixing in Shag Rocks Passage

Diapycnal mixing rates in the oceans have been shown to have a great deal of spatial variability, but the temporal variability has been little studied. Here we present results from a method developed to calculate diapycnal diffusivity from moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) velocity shear profiles. An 18-month time series of diffusivity is presented from data taken by a LongRanger ADCP moored at 2400 m depth, 600 m above the sea floor, in Shag Rocks Passage, a deep passage in the North Scotia Ridge (Southern Ocean). The Polar Front is constrained to pass through this passage, and the strong currents and complex topography are expected to result in enhanced mixing. The spatial distribution of diffusivity in Shag Rocks Passage deduced from lowered ADCP shear is consistent with published values for similar regions, with diffusivity possibly as large as 90 × 10-4 m2 s-1 near the sea floor, decreasing to the expected background level of ~ 0.1 × 10-4 m2 s-1 in areas away from topography. The moored ADCP profiles spanned a depth range of 2400 to 1800 m; thus the moored time series was obtained from a region of moderately enhanced diffusivity. The diffusivity time series has a median of 3.3 × 10-4 m2 s-1 and a range of 0.5 × 10-4 m2 s-1 to 57 × 10-4 m2 s-1. There is no significant signal at annual or semiannual periods, but there is evidence of signals at periods of approximately fourteen days (likely due to the spring-neaps tidal cycle), and at periods of 3.8 and 2.6 days most likely due to topographically-trapped waves propagating around the local seamount. Using the observed stratification and an axisymmetric seamount, of similar dimensions to the one west of the mooring, in a model of baroclinic topographically-trapped waves, produces periods of 3.8 and 2.6 days, in agreement with the signals observed. The diffusivity is anti-correlated with the rotary coefficient (indicating that stronger mixing occurs during times of upward energy propagation), which suggests that mixing occurs due to the breaking of internal waves generated at topography

Is the Faroe Bank Channel overflow hydraulically controlled?

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 36 (2006): 2340-2349, doi:10.1175/JPO2969.1.The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas through the Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) has attributes suggesting hydraulic control—primarily an asymmetry across the sill reminiscent of flow over a dam. However, this aspect has never been confirmed by any quantitative measure, nor is the position of the control section known. This paper presents a comparison of several different techniques for assessing the hydraulic criticality of oceanic overflows applied to data from a set of velocity and hydrographic sections across the FBC. These include 1) the cross-stream variation in the local Froude number, including a modified form that accounts for stratification and vertical shear, 2) rotating hydraulic solutions using a constant potential vorticity layer in a channel of parabolic cross section, and 3) direct computation of shallow water wave speeds from the observed overflow structure. Though differences exist, the three methods give similar answers, suggesting that the FBC is indeed controlled, with a critical section located 20–90 km downstream of the sill crest. Evidence of an upstream control with respect to a potential vorticity wave is also presented. The implications of these results for hydraulic predictions of overflow transport and variability are discussed.The Faroe Bank Channel experiment was supported by NSF Grant OCE-9906736. JBG gratefully acknowledges the support of the NOAA/ UCAR Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Program and NSF Grant OCE-9985840. Author Price was supported in part by the U.S. Office of Naval Research through Grant N00014-04-1-0109

Surface currents in operational oceanography: Key applications, mechanisms, and methods

This paper reviews physical mechanisms, observation techniques and modelling approaches dealing with surface currents on short time scales (hours to days) relevant for operational oceanography. Key motivations for this article include fundamental difficulties in reliable measurements and the persistent lack of a widely held consensus on the definition of surface currents. These problems are augmented by the fact that various methods to observe and model ocean currents yield very different representations of a surface current. We distinguish between four applicable definitions for surface currents; (i) the interfacial surface current, (ii) the direct wind-driven surface current, (iii) the surface boundary layer current, and (iv) an effective drift current. Finally, we discuss challenges in synthesising various data sources of surface currents - i.e. observational and modelling – and take a view on the predictability of surface currents concluding with arguments that parts of the surface circulation exhibit predictability useful in an operational context

Model studies of dense water overflows in the Faroese Channels Topical Collection on the 5th International Workshop on Modelling the Ocean (IWMO) in Bergen, Norway 17-20 June 2013

The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas through the Faroese Channel system was investigated through combined laboratory experiments and numerical simulations using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model. In the experimental study, a scaled, topographic representation of the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Wyville-Thomson Basin and Ridge and Faroe Bank Channel seabed bathymetry was constructed and mounted in a rotating tank. A series of parametric experiments was conducted using dye-tracing and drogue-tracking techniques to investigate deep-water overflow pathways and circulation patterns within the modelled region. In addition, the structure of the outflowing dense bottom water was investigated through density profiling along three cross-channel transects located in the Wyville-Thomson Basin and the converging, up-sloping approach to the Faroe Bank Channel. Results from the dye-tracing studies demonstrate a range of parametric conditions under which dense water overflow across the Wyville-Thomson Ridge is shown to occur, as defined by the Burger number, a non-dimensional length ratio and a dimensionless dense water volume flux parameter specified at the Faroe-Shetland Channel inlet boundary. Drogue-tracking measurements reveal the complex nature of flow paths and circulations generated in the modelled topography, particularly the development of a large anti-cyclonic gyre in the Wyville-Thompson Basin and up-sloping approach to the Faroe Bank Channel, which diverts the dense water outflow from the Faroese shelf towards the Wyville-Thomson Ridge, potentially promoting dense water spillage across the ridge itself. The presence of this circulation is also indicated by associated undulations in density isopycnals across the Wyville-Thomson Basin. Numerical simulations of parametric test cases for the main outflow pathways and density structure in a similarly-scaled Faroese Channels model domain indicate excellent qualitative agreement with the experimental observations and measurements. In addition, the comparisons show that strong temporal variability in the predicted outflow pathways and circulations have a strong influence in regulating the Faroe Bank Channel and Wyville-Thomson Ridge overflows, as well as in determining the overall response in the Faroese Channels to changes in the Faroe-Shetland Channel inlet boundary conditions. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Water mass transformation in the Greenland Sea during the 1990s

Time series of hydrographic and transient tracer measurements were used to study the variability of Greenland Sea water mass transformation between 1991 and 2000. Increases in tracer inventories indicate active renewal of Greenland Sea Intermediate Water (GSIW) at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2 Sv (1 Sv = 1 × 106 m3 s−1) (10-year average). A temperature maximum (Tmax) was established at the base of the upper layer (500 m) as a consequence of anomalously strong freshwater input into the near-surface layer at the beginning of the 1990s. Tmax rapidly descended to 1500 m by 1995 followed by a much slower rate of descent. GSIW became warmer and less saline compared to the 1980s. During the deepening phase of Tmax, atmospheric data revealed above-average wind stress curl and oceanic heat loss. In addition, high Arctic Ocean sea-ice export and lack of local sea-ice formation have been documented for that period. A combination of all these factors may have evoked the renewal of GSIW with anomalously freshwater from the upper layers. The Tmax layer established a stability maximum that inhibits vertical exchange between intermediate and deeper waters. Temperature and salinity of deep waters continued to increase at rates of 0.01°C yr−1 and 0.001 yr−1, respectively. However, since 1993, decrease in and homogenization of deep water transient tracer concentrations indicate that renewal occurred predominantly by addition of Arctic Ocean waters. In 2000 the water column (500 m to 3400 m) required an additional 60 W m−2 (110 W m−2) over the annual mean heat loss to restore its heat content to 1989 (1971) values